Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Scott Patterson — How Merchants Make Billions in The New Age of Disaster, Defending In opposition to Silent Dangers, Private Independence, Skepticism

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“In the event you should panic, panic early.”

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“Uncertainty is definitely a motive for precaution moderately than simply throwing warning to the wind and simply saying, ‘Nicely, we don’t know, so what the hell? Let’s simply hold going.’”

— Scott Patterson

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) spent 21 years as a risk-taker (quantitative dealer) earlier than changing into a researcher in philosophical, mathematical, and (largely) sensible issues with likelihood.

Taleb is the writer of a multivolume essay, the Incerto (The Black SwanFooled by RandomnessAntifragileThe Bed of Procrustes, and Skin in the Game), masking broad sides of uncertainty. His work has been revealed into 49 languages.

Along with his dealer life, Taleb has additionally written, as a backup of the Incerto, greater than 70 technical and scholarly papers in mathematical statistics, genetics, quantitative finance, statistical physics, medication, philosophy, ethics, economics, and worldwide affairs across the notion of danger and likelihood (grouped within the Technical Incerto).

Taleb is presently Distinguished Professor of Threat Engineering at NYU’s Tandon College of Engineering (retired). His present focus is on the properties of methods that may deal with dysfunction (“antifragile”).


Scott Patterson (@pattersonscott) is an investigative reporter for The Wall Avenue Journal, presently primarily based in Washington DC, engaged on local weather and power coverage. His new e book is Chaos Kings: How Wall Street Traders Make Billions in the New Age of Crisis, a profile of the rise of “black-swan merchants,” equivalent to Nassim Taleb and Mark Spitznagel, in addition to a survey of the various perils the world faces as we speak—and the way we would repair them.

Scott has coated every part from Berkshire Hathaway to inventory exchanges to high-speed merchants to the monetary regulators. His first e book, The Quants, describes the rise of mathematical finance and delves into its function within the 2008 monetary blowup. Dark Pools, his second e book, tells how laptop merchants took management of the US inventory market, ranging from the start of laptop buying and selling within the Nineteen Eighties to the explosion of high-frequency buying and selling within the late 2000s.

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The transcript of this episode may be discovered right here. Transcripts of all episodes may be discovered right here.

#691: Nassim N. Taleb & Scott Patterson — How Merchants Make Billions in The New Age of Disaster, Defending In opposition to Silent Dangers, Private Independence, Skepticism The place It (Actually) Counts, The Bishop and The Economist, and A lot Extra

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Need to hear an interview with another person who historical past will bear in mind as rather more than a profitable hedge fund supervisor? Hearken to my most up-to-date dialog with Ed Thorp wherein we mentioned music as stress discount, avoiding pointless dangers, the way to turn into extra numeracy literate, the worth of long-term pondering, the value of short-term pondering, making the very best monetary choices with unknown variables, the way to have enjoyable studying about likelihood and statistics, and rather more.

#604: Grasp Investor Ed Thorp on The way to Suppose for Your self, Psychological Fashions for the Second Half of Life, The way to Be Interior-Directed, How Fundamental Numeracy Is a Superpower, and The Risks of Investing Fads

What was your favourite quote or lesson from this episode? Please let me know in the comments.



  • Join with Nassim Nicholas Taleb:

Website | Twitter

  • Join with Scott Patterson:

Website | Twitter


Editor’s Observe: Timestamps will likely be added shortly

  • How Scott and Nassim first related.
  • Why Nassim would moderately be remembered as a scholar than a dealer.
  • You’ll be able to’t forge a brand new friendship with out breaking a couple of eggs.
  • Silent danger, tail occasions, and one-trick ponies.
  • What prompted Scott to jot down Chaos Kings?
  • Pseudo-efficiency, pseudo-optimization, and pseudo-sorries.
  • The enjoyment of writing a preemptive resignation letter.
  • Creating resilience in opposition to criticism.
  • Recurring patterns in profitable buyers.
  • Nassim: contrarian, or just unbiased?
  • Jiving with skeptical turkeys.
  • Residing within the polycrisis.
  • The precautionary precept.
  • Fats tails, skinny tails, and the COVID vaccine.
  • GMO dangers and Monsanto intimidation ways.
  • Implementing the precautionary precept at a big scale.
  • Uncertainty and the local weather disaster.
  • Convexity within the face of monetary disaster.
  • Are buyers overpowered in an interconnected world?
  • Using the precaution precept in the actual world (for higher and worse).
  • The flow-on impact of getting pores and skin within the recreation.
  • The ponzification of startups and an overdue reckoning.
  • What convexity on the heart of all issues conveys.
  • The place to seek out Scott and Nassim.
  • What Nassim is engaged on now.
  • New insights from historic phrases.
  • Parting ideas.


“On my grave, I don’t need to be often known as a dealer, however as a scholar.”

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“In the event you should panic, panic early.”

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“Uncertainty is definitely a motive for precaution moderately than simply throwing warning to the wind and simply saying, ‘Nicely, we don’t know, so what the hell? Let’s simply hold going.’”

— Scott Patterson

“It’s what I name pseudo-optimization: In the event you drive a Ferrari 500 kilometers per hour, you’re not going to get there quicker than when you experience a bicycle, as a result of clearly you’re by no means going to get there.”

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“I got here into Wall Avenue and began studying about how there’s this perception that persons are irrational and the markets are rational and they’re predictable due to this. And I believed that’s simply loopy. To me, I have a look at monetary markets and I see black swans, I see concern and greed. That to me is what drives markets, not rational conduct, rational expectations.”

— Scott Patterson


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